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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”