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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd