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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.