A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
